Haiti's Electoral Aftermath: What Comes Next?

Ms. Michele Montas (not verbatim, just the gist):

Voter turnout in the most recent elections by my reporter's estimates was around 40 percent. Those who did not vote were not complying with the opposition's boycott. Rather they assumed Aristide's victory and were concerned about violence. The opposition failed to motivate the people. On May 21^st, people voted for the Lavalas ticket and not for individual candidates.

Key issues include dialogue, violence and mistrust. Aristide has a more fragile mandate than the last time he was elected.

Expectations of the people are high. For example the new mayor of Port au Prince has promised ninety thousand new jobs. This is not practical.

The international community plays a role. The president of the Senate showed off the letter Clinton wrote to Aristide as if it were a victory.

The European Union gave a cold response to the elections.

On the media, the intellectuals went to the opposition. There has been a refusal to engage in further dialogue with the exception of Marc Bazin, former candidate for president who is bargaining for a cabinet post.

We are starting to see the first sign of a split in parliament. Aristide is not in control.

On the CEP there are two mayors. The second or new mayor set up his own army, he is the same who has promised the jobs (maybe there is some correlation). He employed them to clean up the neighborhood of Martissant. The previous or first mayor disagreed with this action and this demonstrates the dissent within the party.

As for civil society, most of the grassroots voted for Aristide but called for their own agenda to be heard which included land issues. That was the action of the peasant community; they set out their own demands. The business community meanwhile is waiting.

There is an absence of qualified people in office, they were chosen from those who showed allegiance and loyalty.

As to the state machinery, there is a corrupt judiciary, a young police force with signs recently of being further weakened by the central government and the departure of the inspector-general.

Can Aristide become Duvalier? The coup had a profound impact on him and there are strong indications that the opposition's calling this a coup is wrong. Have faith in the Haitian people. They have resisted for two hundred years and survived Duvalier as well as the years 1986 and 1987. There was constitutional progress made in that it called for participation in public life as well as the mandate for Kreyol to be on a par with French. The people will not lie down for another dictatorship to come along.

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

Robert Nicolas-NOAH: What can the Diaspora do to help?

Montas: Organizations in the Diaspora have an impact on Lavalas. In part that is why Aristide returned in 1994. Through interventions on human rights and economic issues the impact can be tremendous, it can influence U.S. administration (who has not really had a policy for the past two years). The NGO funding will have limited impact.

Patrick Murphy-State Dept.: Neptune mischaracterized Clinton's letter to Aristide, it did not deal with the November elections, it was personal, and it was not a congratulatory letter. More will not be released as it was considered privileged information.

There was a heavy reliance on the Haitian media in the absence of electoral observers. Can you tell us more about the acts of intimidation on November 26 and 27?

Montas: Yes, they have been going on since April. They do not come from one sector but from all. Both sides have intimidated regarding the turnout in November. This has gone on for years to an extent that much freedom has been lost in the last few years in Haiti. It is true that it is internal elements, usually from smaller zealous fragments of the party…. The climate exists, fear exists, and if Jean Dominique could be killed then anyone could be killed.

Cynthia Martin (office of Rep John Conyers): What about the elite response?

Montas: Business has a wait-and-see attitude. They watch the international community and the next four weeks of Aristide.

The well-known "politics of the understudy" could happen again, with Aristide acting at the behest of those with money. He knows he needs money, he may go to the people who have it, this might happen. Worrisome if it occurs with the less progressive bourgeois, they are the only ones who will talk to him … those who were part of the coup.

Question on Elections: Why did Lavalas go to such lengths in the second election? And why did the U.S. react so violently to the irregularities in Haiti when they supported the Peruvian election?

Montas: The violence worries us; it is linked to the high intolerance so prevalent the last few months. There was a demonization of Aristide by the opposition and the people wanted to protect him. It is also linked to the number of weapons to street groups (on both sides). Guns are behind the crime in the streets.

Lavalas was not confident that they were winning. Additionally, he has been in seclusion, he has been silent until after the election . . . it worries intellectuals who do not know what is going on in his head, his priorities. His silence led other groups to vie for prominence.

The international response? They worried about him in power; they are uncomfortable not working with the intellectuals of the opposition, whom they know and with whom they share a language. They distrust the party and were more comfortable with Préval.

Patrick Murphy- State Dept.: With the irregularities in May it is hard to think of where the international community can come to an agreement.

Montas: There are differences between the international community and the opposition. A problem with the senate elections is that the word fraud is carelessly used. The opposition did not accept that the first round was indeed legitimate. The opposition made it sound as if the first round was Operation Zero i.e. we must do it all over again. This was not true, the first round was conducted appropriately, my reporters were there . . .

It was stupid of Lavalas to not to have accepted it, why not do it? Maybe it was insecure over the newly-won power.

However, withholding funding from the government, it is a blind alley and short-term approach not to support an elected government. It limits development. Institutions, grassroots, they exist and are striving to work. Get out of Port-au-Prince and see something else.

Marie Racine-Voices for Haiti: Security is necessary, gangs seem to be running free, and there is no control. Are there any considerations towards Aristide's not being in control of the violence and perhaps falling victim?

Montas: It is true, people are afraid. Others and myself have protection. Between the criminal sector and police violence there is a thin line. Drug lords use violence for political ends. The police have a hard time of curtailing it. I am glad it is the police and not the army but the police are weak and inexperienced, with little training. Only two units can deal with security. Many arrest deportees. Violence and fear have increased and are linked to the climate of instability. People ask for protection, not justice. I want justice for Jean Dominque to feel safe. Without a clear signal by Aristide that violence should not be used justice will not come. There has been some progress, as seen with Raboteau. It takes justice to end impunity and have security.

Question on Aristide's income: How did he gain his wealth? Did he misuse state funds?

Montas: Not many people are really concerned about this. Because they compare Aristide to Duvalier, to civil people it is not the major issue. There has been no audit of Aristide. Perhaps some money for grassroots may have gone the wrong way. There is no proof of a drug connection. You see most of the Haitian community abroad send him money regularly.

Malachi Jones- NOAH: Moving forward to the big picture, what is the course for the next fifty years? With the U.S. playing the role of the Godfather.

Montas: Social issues, health and education namely, are priorities. The allegations that a Cuban army is in Haiti are baseless, they are doctors. The peasants gave a declaration on Monday with their list of demands for Aristide. They are afraid that if he is put into a corner that he will take the easy way out. Without long-term solutions it will kill the efforts of the last four years (an example of growing their own rice for production in the valley as opposed to importing rice and then selling it for well below the buying price).

Jocelyn McCalla - NCHR: Additionally, Haitian Americans can invest in organizations in the U.S. that have a good record of relief delivery such as NOAH.

Question: What is the impact of a lower turnout? Does it signify divisions within Lavalas? Is this his political capture by conservative forces? What is his ability and will?

Montas: I do not know. I have had little contact with him. He is definitely most concerned about his historical role. It is of the foremost importance to him. I do not think anyone has solutions to those questions. The next few weeks will shed more light on the subject.

Question on Drugs: The image of Haiti in the U.S. press is that of a drug state, to what extent can there be constructive use of aid to help address drugs?

Montas: There is little done to combat the impact of trafficking on the Haitian community. It destroys economic life. For example in the south, they watch for a boat chase, they know that drugs will be dumped into the water and they will then wash up on the shore. They sell those drugs in lieu of working in the fields. It is not enough to help the Haitian police to combat this problem.